PENGARUH BELANJA DAERAH FUNGSI KETERTIBAN DAN KEAMANAN, PENYALURAN BANTUAN SOSIAL DAN TARAF KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT TERHADAP TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS DI JAWA TIMUR: (PENGARUH BELANJA DAERAH FUNGSI KETERTIBAN DAN KEAMANAN, PENYALURAN BANTUAN SOSIAL DAN TARAF KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT TERHADAP TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS DI JAWA TIMUR)

Aini Awaliyah Khusyhi; Lucky Rachmawati

doi:10.26740/independent.v5i3.74024

Authors

Aini Awaliyah Khusyhi Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Lucky Rachmawati State University of Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v5i3.74024

Keywords:

Crime, Regional Expenditure, Social Assistance, Community Welfare, East Java

Abstract

Crime in East Java Province is influenced by security policies, social interventions, and regional economic conditions; therefore, an empirical analysis is required to determine the influence of each factor. This study aims to analyze the effect of regional government expenditure on public order and security, the distribution of social assistance, and the level of community welfare on crime rates in East Java Province during the period 2019–2023. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance of the Ministry of Finance. The analytical method used is panel data regression with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM), processed using EViews 13 software. The results show that government expenditure on public order and security has a negative and significant effect on crime rates, while social assistance distribution and the level of community welfare have positive and significant effects. Simultaneously, all three variables have a significant effect on crime rates in East Java Province during 2019–2023.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Agnew, R., & Brezina, T. (2006). General Strain Theory. Handbooks of Sociology and Social Research, October, 145–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20779-3_8

Anderson, D. A. (2021). The Aggregate Cost of Crime in the United States. Journal of Law and Economics, 64(4), 857–885. https://doi.org/10.1086/715713

Auer, D., Slotwinski, M., Ahrens, A., Hangartner, D., Kurer, S., Kurt, S., & Stutzer, A. (2024). Social Assistance and Refugee Crime. SSRN Electronic Journal, 11051. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4793907

Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2023). Analisis Data Panel Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi Dan Bisnis (Dilengkapi dengan Penggunaan Eviews). 1–236.

Beck, B. (2025). Local Government Spending: Policing Versus Social Services. Annual Review of Criminology, 8(1), 505–528. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-111523-122639

Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and Punishment : An Economic Approach Published by : The University of Chicago Press. Journal of Political Economy, 76(2), 169–217. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1830482

Fadly, F. (2023). Pengaruh Realisasi Belanja Pemerintah Terhadap Kriminalitas Di Kota Pekanbaru Menggunakan Pendekatan Error Correction Model (Ecm). Jurnal Dinamika Pemerintahan, 06(02), 127–144.

Farida, Y., Farmita, M., Intan, P. K., Khaulasari, H., & Wibowo, A. T. (2024). Modeling Crime in East Java Using Spatial Durbin Model Regression. Barekeng, 18(3), 1497–1508. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1497-1508

Felson, M., & Clarke, R. V. (1998). Opportunity makes the thief: practical theory for crime prevention. Police Research Series, Paper 98. Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, Research, Development and Statistics Directorate.

Igwe, A. O., Ojeh, A. I., & Nnajieze, E. I. (2024). Government Expenditure on Internal Security and Sustainable Development Goal 16. European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, 12(10), 74–87. https://doi.org/10.37745/ejaafr.2013/vol12n107487

Ikhsan, I., & Amri, A. (2023). Exploration of macroeconomic effects on criminality in Indonesia. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2206678

Karpavicius, T., Stavytskyy, A., Giedraitis, V. R., Ulvidienė, E., Kharlamova, G., & Kavaliauskaite, B. (2024). What Determines the Crime Rate? A Macroeconomic Case Study. Economies, 12(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090250

Mubarok, M. I. G., & Saepudin, T. (2024). Analisis Dampak Indikator Sosial Ekonomi Terhadap Tingkat Kriminalitas Pada 13 Kota Besar Di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2021. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi, 3(2), 101–117. https://doi.org/10.23969/jrie.v3i2.68

Napitupulu, R. B., Simanjutak, T. P., Hutabarat, L., Damanik, H., Harianja, H., Sirait, R. T. M., & Tobing, C. E. R. L. (2021). Penelitian Bisnis Teknik dan Analisis Data. 1–222.

Ramdayani, S. S., Kharisma, B., & Wibowo, K. (2019). Pengeluaran pemerintah sektor perlindungan sosial, ketertiban keamanan, dan kriminalitas. Jurnal Economia, 15(2), 259–274.

Tiratelli, M., Bradford, B., & Yesberg, J. (2023). The Political Economy of Crime: Did Universal Credit Increase Crime Rates? British Journal of Criminology, 63(3), 570–587. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azac043