Pengaruh Harga Komoditas Padi terhadap Daya Beli Petani Jawa Timur 2020-2024: Pendekatan VECM

nabila rizqitamodi; Chindy Saktias Pratiwi; Hapsari Wiji Utami

doi:10.26740/independent.v6i2.74187

Authors

nabila rizqitamodi Uinsa
Chindy Saktias Pratiwi Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur
Hapsari Wiji Utami UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v6i2.74187

Keywords:

Price of Paddy, price of rice, farmer purchasing power, farmer welfare, vecm

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of grain prices at the farm level, milling, and rice prices
at the consumer level on the purchasing power of farmers in East Java, which is represented
by the farmer exchange rate (NTP). The Data used is secondary data for the period 2020-
2024 from BPS East Java and Disperindag East Java. The analysis was conducted using
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the short and long term relationship. The
results showed that the price of grain at the farm level and the price of rice at the consumer
level is more influential on purchasing power than the price at the milling level. Grain price
increases have a positive and significant effect on NTP both in the short and long term.
Conversely, rising consumer rice prices negatively affect purchasing power. Meanwhile, the
price of grain in the mill does not have a significant effect, indicating the added value at that
point is not fully enjoyed by farmers. This study suggests the need for price protection at the
farm level and the strengthening of fair supply chains in order to maintain purchasing power
and improve the welfare of farmers in a sustainable manner

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