DETERMINAN KONTRAK FUTURES KOMODITI TIMAH DI BURSA KOMODITI DAN DERIVATIF INDONESIA

Abstract

Futures contracts constitute an agreement to buy or sell the underlying or commodity at the price, and a certain time agreed upon. One of the commodities traded on the Indonesia commodity and derivatives exchange is the futures contract of the tin commodity. Futures contracts are used by investors to reduce risk. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of spot price, forward price, inflation, interest rate and government bonds index on tin commodity futures contracts traded on the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) during the year 2016-2019. This research is a causality study with a quantitative approach. The population used is the futures contract of the tin commodity at the time of settlement date, with the sampling technique using the purposive sampling amounting to 144 data. Statistical analyses used in data processing are multiple linear regression. The results showed that the spot price and forward price were significantly influential on the tin Commodity futures contracts. The inflation variable doess no effect on the tin commodity futures contracts due to the inflation rate of mild inflation that does not affect the companys production needs. The variable interest rate does no effect on the commodity futures contracts, investors have not been attracted by the profit to be gained despite the risk of being low. While government bonds index variables do not affect the commodity futures contracts as Indonesian investors tend to maintain short-term liquidity due to uncertain conditions.

Keywords: forward price; futures contracts; spot price; tin commodity.