SIKLUS EKONOMI MODEL GOODWIN BERDASARKAN RELASI WORKERS SHARE DAN EMPLOYMENT RATE DI INDONESIA

Abstract

Salah satu model ekonomi yang memprediksi siklus ekonomi adalah Goodwin’s Class Strunggle Model  (Model Goodwin). Model ini mencoba memperlihatkan suatu siklus ekonomi berdasarkan relasi antar workers share dan employment rate. Pada skripsi ini akan dikaji mengenai model Goodwin yang terdiri dari dari dua variabel yaitu workers share dan employment rate yang diterapkan pada data ekonomi Indonesia yang diambil dari BPS. Dalam konstruksinya, model ini menggabungkan dua aspek teori ekonomi yaitu teori model pertumbuhan Harrod Domar, dan teori model Kurva Phillips. Analisis dinamik seperti penentuan titik kritis, kestabilan titik kritis, dan simulasi solusi sistem model Goodwin dilakukan secara numerik beserta interpretasinya secara ekonomi.

Kata kunci : Model Goodwin, Model Pertumbuhan Harrod Domar, Model Kurva Phillips.

Abstract

One of the economic models which predictthe economic cycle is Goodwin's Class Strunggle Model or known as Goodwin models, where the model is trying to present an economic cycle based on relation between workers share and employment rate. This paper will discuss about Goodwin model consisting of two variables: workers share and employment rate that are applied to the data of Indonesian economic taken from BPS. In constructing of the model, two aspects of economic theory, that are growth model theory of Harrod Domar and Phillips Curve, are combined. Analysis of dynamic such as determination of the critical points, the stability of the critical points, and the simulation of solutions Goodwin model is done numericallyas well as their interpretation economically.

Key words : GoodwinModel, Growth Model of Harrod Domar, Phillips Curve Model.