Uji Environmental Kuznets Curve: Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, FDI, dan Keterbukaan Perdagangan terhadap Emisi CO₂ di Lima Negara ASEAN.

Nadira Fitri Arifiyah; Mohammad Wasil

doi:10.26740/independent.v5i3.74127

Authors

Nadira Fitri Arifiyah Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Mohammad Wasil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v5i3.74127

Keywords:

emisi CO2, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Foreign Direct Investment, keterbukaan perdagangan, ASEAN.

Abstract

Perubahan iklim yang dipicu emisi karbon telah menjadi tantangan global yang mendesak, khususnya bagi negara berkembang dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi pesat seperti di ASEAN, di mana pembangunan masih bertumpu pada sumber energi fosil. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, investasi asing langsung (FDI), dan keterbukaan perdagangan terhadap tingkat emisi CO2 di tujuh negara ASEAN pada periode 2018–2023. Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori dengan analisis data panel, penelitian ini menguji hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve. Hasil penelitian mengonfirmasi keberadaan pola EKC berbentuk U terbalik, di mana pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif dan kuadratnya berpengaruh negatif terhadap emisi, dengan titik balik (turning point) pada PDB per kapita sekitar USD 30.300. Keterbukaan perdagangan juga berdampak positif signifikan, mencerminkan dominasi efek skala dan komposisi dari aktivitas perdagangan. Sementara itu, FDI tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa sebagian besar negara ASEAN masih berada pada fase awal (ascending slope) kurva EKC, di mana pertumbuhan ekonomi masih bergantung pada energi fosil dan belum terjadi decoupling yang stabil antara pertumbuhan dan emisi.

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