ANALISIS KEAKURATAN SOLUSI CENTROID MOMENT-TENSOR (CMT) GEMPA BUMI DI  WILAYAH JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN METODE GISOLA, SUDUT KAGAN  DAN  MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE) PADA SOFTWARE JOKOTINGKIR

Fairhiza Firman Arjangga; Arie Realita; Madlazim

doi:10.26740/ifi.v15n1.p132-146

Authors

Fairhiza Firman Arjangga physics
Arie Realita Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Madlazim Universitas Negeri Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/ifi.v15n1.p132-146

Keywords:

Centroid Moment Tensor, GISOLA, Jokotingkir, Sudut Kagan, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Jawa Tengah., Kagan Angle, Central Java

Abstract

Abstrak

Penelitian ini menganalisis keakuratan solusi Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) gempa bumi di wilayah Jawa Tengah menggunakan software Jokotingkir yang mengimplementasikan algoritma GISOLA, dengan pembanding data dari GlobalCMT melalui metode Sudut Kagan dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Dari 10 kejadian gempa dengan magnitudo ≥ 5,0 pada tahun 2020–2024, hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar parameter strike dan dip memiliki kesesuaian cukup baik dengan nilai MAPE masing-masing sebesar 22,99% (dapat diterima) dan 12,39% (baik), sementara rake menunjukkan hasil paling bervariasi dengan MAPE sebesar 49,44% karena sensitivitasnya terhadap arah slip. Analisis Sudut Kagan juga mengindikasikan bahwa sebagian besar solusi CMT menunjukkan kesesuaian sedang hingga tinggi, meskipun beberapa gempa menunjukkan ketidaksesuaian signifikan. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut, disarankan agar pengembangan difokuskan pada peningkatan akurasi estimasi rake melalui penyempurnaan algoritma inversi, perbaikan kualitas data waveform, perluasan cakupan stasiun seismik lokal, dan penerapan model kecepatan 3D regional yang lebih representatif.

Abstract

This study analyzes the accuracy of Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) earthquake solutions in Central Java using the Jokotingkir software, which implements the GISOLA algorithm, by comparing the results with data from GlobalCMT through the Kagan Angle and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) methods. Based on 10 earthquake events with magnitudes ≥ 5.0 between 2020 and 2024, the analysis shows that most strike and dip parameters are reasonably consistent, with MAPE values of 22.99% (acceptable) and 12.39% (good), respectively, while rake exhibits the highest variation with a MAPE of 49.44% due to its sensitivity to slip direction. The Kagan Angle analysis also indicates that most CMT solutions demonstrate moderate to high similarity, although several events reveal significant discrepancies. These findings suggest that further development should prioritize improving rake estimation accuracy by refining the inversion algorithm, enhancing waveform quality, expanding the coverage of local seismic stations, and applying more representative 3D regional velocity models.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abidin, H.Z., et al. (2009). Deformation of the Opak Fault Zone in Indonesia as Detected by GPS and DInSAR Observations. Geological Society of America.

Aki, K., dan Richards, P. G. (2002). Quantitative Seismology. University Science Books.

Armstrong, J. S., dan Collopy, F. (1992). Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons. International Journal of Forecasting, 8(1), 69-80.

Artale Harris, P., Scognamiglio, L., Magnoni, F., Casarotti, E., and Tinti, E. (2022). Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog With 3D Lithospheric Wave Speed Model: The 2016–2017 Central Apennines Sequence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127(4), e2021JB023068.

Chen, C., Du, P., dan Jiang, Y. (2017). Comparison of different methods for variable selection in short-term load forecasting models. Energy, 128, 22-30.

Das, A., et al. (2019). GPS-based slip models of one Mw 7.2 and twenty moderate earthquakes along the Sumatran plate boundary, Geoscience Letters, 6

De Myttenaere, A., Golden, B., Le Grand, B., dan Rossi, F. (2016). Mean absolute percentage error for regression models. Neurocomputing, 192, 38-48.

Diedrich, L. et al. (2017). Tectonic Strain and Faults in Subduction Zones. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 485(3), 167-179.

Frohlich, C., & Davis, S. D. (1999). How well constrained are well-constrained T, B, and P axes in moment tensor catalogs? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 104(B3), 4901-4910.

Gomberg, J., et al. (1990). "Inverse problem of seismic source identification using moment tensors." Journal of Geophysical Research, 95(B10), 17993-18002.

Gunawan I dan Subarjo, 2005. Pengantar Seismologi. Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika: Jakarta

Gutscher, M. A. et al. (2000). The Subduction Zone of the Chile Triple Junction. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(B12), 28737–28756.

Harris, R. A., Cocco, M., dan Mansinha, L. (2009). The spatial distribution of aftershock locations in the Kagan method. Journal of Seismology, 13(2), 113-124.

https://geologi.esdm.go.id/media-center/analisis-geologi-kejadian-gempa-bumi-merusak-di-perairan-selatan-provinsi-daerah-istimewa-yogyakarta-dan-jawa-tengah-tanggal-30-juni-2023-2 diakses pada 11 Februari 2025

Hyndman, R. J., dan Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679-688.

Kagan, Y. Y. (1991). "3-D rotation of double-couple earthquake sources." Geophysical Journal International, 106(3), 709–716.

Kagan, Y. Y. (1991). Some statistical characteristics of earthquake focal mechanisms. Geophysical Journal International, 106(1), 89-96.

Lewis, C. D. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods.

Makridakis, S., dan Hibon, M. (2000). The M3-Competition: Results, conclusions, and implications. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 451-476.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C., dan Hyndman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications. John Wiley & Sons.

Muliawati dan Harbowo, D. G. "A Statistical review of the dates and patterns of volcanic activity of Lewotolo Volcano, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 1245, no. 1, p. 012006, 2023

National Observatory of Athens. (2023). GISOLA: High-Performance Seismic Inversion Software. Retrieved from https://interoperable-europe.ec.europa.eu/

Pondrelli, E., et al. (2006), "The Italian CMT dataset from 1977 to the present"

Sawade, L., Beller, S., Lei, W., & Tromp, J. (2022). Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue. Geophysical Journal International, 231(3), 1727–1738

Scognamiglio, L., Tinti, E., & Michelini, A. 2009. Real-time determination of seismic moment tensor for the Italian region. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(4), 2223-2242.

Shearer, P. M. (2019). Introduction to Seismology. Cambridge University Press.

Stein, S., dan Wysession, M. (2003). An Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, and Earth Structure. Blackwell Publishing.

Sumarti, D., dan Saptaji, A. (2011). Geologi Daerah Jawa Tengah. Jakarta: Pusat Penelitian Geoteknologi LIPI.

Tape, W., dan Tape, C. (2012). A geometric setting for moment tensors. Geophysical Journal International, 190(1), 476–498.

Triantafyllis, N., et al. (2022). "GISOLA: A High-Performance Computing Application for Real-Time Seismic Moment Tensor Determination." Seismological Research Letters, 93(2A), 957-970. doi:10.1785/0220210345

Triantafyllis, N., Venetis, I., Fountoulakis, I., Pikoulis, E.-V., Sokos, E., dan Evangelidis, C. (2021). Gisola: {Real-Time} Moment Tensor computation optimized for multicore and manycore architectures. {EGU} General Assembly Conference Abstracts, EGU21--15888.

Trisnisa, R. Metrikasari, R. Rabbanie, K. Sakdiyah dan A. Choiruddin, "Model Inhomogeneous Spatial Cox Processes Untuk Pemetaan Risiko Gempabumi di Pulau Jawa," INFERENSI Vol. 2 (2), pp. 107-111, 2019.

Watkinson, I.M., dan Hall, R. (2017). Fault systems of the eastern Indonesia collision complex. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 76, 389–403.

Yamazaki, Y., Kubo, H., dan Sato, T. (2012). Tectonic implications of earthquake focal mechanisms: A case study of the Japan subduction zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B6), B06301.

.