ANALISIS KEAKURATAN SOLUSI CENTROID MOMENT-TENSOR (CMT) PADA JOKO TINGKIR MENGGUNAKAN METODE MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (MAE) DAN SUDUT KAGAN DI WILAYAH JAWA TIMUR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26740/ifi.v14n2.p243-252Keywords:
Centroid Moment-Tensor, Joko Tingkir, GlobalCMT, MAE, Sudut Kagan, Kagan AngleAbstract
Abstrak
Wilayah Jawa Timur merupakan kawasan aktif secara tektonik yang rawan terjadi gempa bumi. Untuk menunjang mitigasi bencana, diperlukan pemahaman yang akurat terhadap mekanisme sumber gempa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kualitas solusi Centroid Moment-Tensor (CMT) dari sistem Joko Tingkir dengan membandingkannya terhadap solusi dari GlobalCMT. Metode yang digunakan mencakup Mean Absolute Error (MAE) untuk menilai selisih absolut parameter mekanisme sumber (strike, dip, rake) dan sudut Kagan untuk mengukur kesesuaian orientasi bidang patahan. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai MAE masing-masing adalah 64,5° (strike), 14,00° (dip), dan 27,17° (rake). Sementara itu, sudut Kagan berada dalam rentang 2,066° hingga 22,814°, yang masih di bawah ambang batas toleransi 60°. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa solusi CMT dari Joko Tingkir cukup konsisten dengan GlobalCMT dan dapat dijadikan referensi awal dalam analisis mekanisme gempa bumi di Jawa Timur.
Abstract
East Java is one of Indonesia’s tectonically active regions with high seismic risk. To support disaster mitigation, accurate understanding of earthquake source mechanisms is essential. This study aims to assess the accuracy of Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions generated by Joko Tingkir software by comparing them with GlobalCMT solutions. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) method was employed to evaluate absolute differences in strike, dip, and rake parameters, while Kagan angle was used to assess the consistency of fault plane orientation. The results show MAE values of 64.5° for strike, 14.00° for dip, and 27.17° for rake. The Kagan angles ranged from 2.066° to 22.814°, well below the 60° tolerance threshold. These findings indicate that Joko Tingkir’s CMT solutions are sufficiently accurate and consistent with GlobalCMT data for preliminary earthquake source mechanism estimation in East Java.
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